In the Furrow
Impact of Weather Patterns
By Will Duffie County Extension Coordinator

Over the past few years, scientists have been studying how the Pacific Ocean temperature affects the climate in the U.S. The weather patterns are categorized into 3 predictions: El Nino, La Nina, and a neutral pattern. The predicted pattern will impact winter grazing and grains in Burke County.

Dr. Joel Paz, UGA Extension Agrometeorologist, states that the drought looks to continue in Georgia and Alabama, may worsen in Florida. With much colder than normal ocean waters now in place in the tropical Pacific Ocean, it is nearly certain that La Niña will persist and possibly strengthen during the remainder of the fall and winter. La Niña conditions usually bring warmer weather to the entire region, with temperatures generally averaging 2 to 4 degrees F higher than normal from November through March.

What are the implications for the Southeast? Dr. Paz says the warmer temperatures will impact winter crops and fruit production, resulting in less chill accumulation over the course of the winter season. Warmer temperatures will also mean greater evaporation rates. The shift towards drier than normal conditions becomes much more pronounced in Florida and coastal Georgia and Alabama as fall progresses into winter, resulting in much higher confidence in a forecast of dry conditions in these areas. La Niña does not impact central and northern Georgia and Alabama nearly as much, so there is much more uncertainty in the precipitation forecast for these areas and near normal is more likely, unless this La Niña grows into a strong event. Even with near normal rainfall, drought conditions are likely to persist in northern Georgia and Alabama, but some lessening of the severity is possible with the winter rainfall. Keep in mind that winter rainfall is vital to the recharge of surface and groundwater. In Florida and southeast Georgia where drought concerns were eased with recent rainfall, there is a strong possibility for drought to re-intensify this winter and spring. Wildfires will also be a concern, where studies show that La Niña normally leads to an active wildfire season in Florida and South Georgia.

For individuals whom keep track of the first below freezing dates of the year; here are the dates in Midville for the past few years: in 2006, Nov. 4; 2005, Nov. 18; 2004, Nov. 16; 2003, Nov. 14; 2002, Nov. 18; and in 2001, Oct. 29. For more information contact the UGA - Burke County Extension Office at 706-554- 2119.